Though you would never know it watching the news, crime is down. "If it bleeds, it leads" has to be the most contemptuous phrase ever uttered in terms of what the media thinks of their customers. I read in last Sunday's Chronicle that shows a continuing downward trend going back 40 years - yes, despite the surges in drug use.
So if the country has never been safer (Orange alert! Orange alert!), what is the reason? Luckily, the Chron trotted out all kinds of theories--some designed to really test your critical thinking skills:
PRISONS Fewer criminals means less crime, hard-liners argue. Record numbers of inmates behind bars means serious offenders are off the streets. But other countries such as Canada and England free inmates after shorter sentences, and those nations have noted a decline in crime, too.
JOBLESSNESS The widely held view that unemployment leads to crime doesn't compute. During the recession when jobless rates hit multi-decade highs, arrest rates not only didn't rise - they went down for both property and personal crime.
POLICE Been in a cop car lately? The vehicles are loaded with computers and video screens, tech gadgets that pinpoint hot spots so that police flood crime zones instead of aimlessly driving around. Better DNA tracking has nailed more offenders. But police budgets now face cuts. That sets up a test: If expenditures drop, then what will it do to crime rates?
DRUGS A wave of Mexican imports and armed drug gangs should be pumping crime, right? But one major crime generator, crack cocaine use, which fueled robberies and burglaries, has subsided.
SELF-DEFENSE What about all those Charles Bronson vigilante movies? A surge in home alarms, neighborhood watch patrols and even gun ownership could be pushing down crime. But there isn't much documented evidence. As for guns, there are studies on both sides of the question on whether having one handy helps - or gets the owner in deeper trouble.
LEAD A ban on lead in paint and gasoline in the 1980s removed a toxic substance that was linked to impaired judgment and poor self-control. Basically, we've become more clear-headed and restrained, and less likely to break the law. It may sound far-fetched, but researchers are lining up behind the argument.
OTHER IDEAS Does the prevalence of surveillance cameras inhibit criminals? Maybe low inflation rates have chopped the resale value of stolen goods. And - watch out on this one - access to abortion has supposedly cut the ranks of the unwanted and poor, who are disproportionate sources of crime. Also, the Brookings Institution think tank says the lower rates are a vote for diversity because a surge in immigration hasn't led to higher crime rates.
What do YOU think is the main contributing factor? Vote now!
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/06/03/EDMM1JOIVV.DTL#ixzz1OhkZ0cwJ
